03-Age_of_the_pilots.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "slide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "# How does the age of the pilot affect the probability of having an accident? "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%load_ext autoreload\n",
    "%autoreload 2\n",
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import sqlite3\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import matplotlib as mpl\n",
    "\n",
    "from flight_safety.queries import get_flight_crew_accidents"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "con = sqlite3.connect('data/avall.db')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "flight_crew = get_flight_crew_accidents(con)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Age distribution of pilots who have had an accident "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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CJcmFAFX1I+CbwBuAzzF1xv727nYmzwMOdjG/FHhBt34v8JtJTurOyq/ojvEd4OtJruqO\nnSTnz+cHlmbDoOu4UVX3ANcC/5HkLqaunx/tXcAJwBeT3N0tH/FZ4JGq+kF3fwXPHPQPAaNJ9jF1\ntn5vN8cXmPqQ9LuAm4F9wLe7fd4EjHXz3QNcefQ3lYbFNxZJc5Dk1Kr6Xncd/jPAxqq6fann0rOb\n19CludmW5CVMXVPfYcx1LPAMXc96SV4KfPCo1T+sqpcvxTzSXBl0SWqET4pKUiMMuiQ1wqBLUiMM\nuiQ1wqBLUiMMuiQ14n8BxrkYqRkrS1QAAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x7f8cb5c0ed68>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "flight_crew.crew_age.plot(kind='box');"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "subslide"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x7f8cb5c0ef28>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "age_bins = np.arange(14, 85, 5)\n",
    "flight_crew['crew_age'].hist(bins=age_bins, ec='white', grid=False)\n",
    "plt.xlabel('age')\n",
    "plt.ylabel('number of accidents');"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Number of licenses per age "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "subslide"
    },
    "tags": [
     "asda"
    ]
   },
   "source": [
    "Active FAA Pilot Certificates Held by Category and Age Group of Holder  according to [GAMMA databook](http://www.gama.aero/files/GAMA_2015_Databook_LoRes%20updated%203-29-2016.pdf http://www.gama.aero/media-center/industry-facts-and-statistics/statistical-databook-and-industry-outlook#year2015)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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UajWXDYhgWHQYz3++m7LKKrvjeCQtBw+yJbOAdXvzuXNcLH56f2jlwUSEWUnx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\nlFL1aDkopZSqR8tBKaVUPf8fI3V2xWgZei4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x7f8cb3b4bcc0>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "licenses_by_age_airline = np.array(\n",
    "    [0, 572, 5199, 12003, 15507, 18337,\n",
    "     23058, 25882, 24220, 16824, 10184,\n",
    "     4284, 1766, 787]\n",
    ")\n",
    "\n",
    "plt.plot(age_bins[1:], licenses_by_age_airline, 'o-');"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Accidents per license rate"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "skip"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "age_group = pd.cut(flight_crew['crew_age'], age_bins)\n",
    "gby_age = flight_crew['ev_id'].groupby(age_group).count()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "subslide"
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x7f8cb3af6588>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "accident_rate_age = gby_age / licenses_by_age_airline\n",
    "accident_rate_age.plot.bar()\n",
    "plt.ylabel('accidents / licenses')\n",
    "plt.xlabel('crew age');"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "slideshow": {
     "slide_type": "subslide"
    }
   },
   "source": [
    "It seems that some people have investigated this issue before:\n",
    "> [...] the accident rate of airline transport rated (ATR) pilots aged 55–59 is approximately one-third of that of pilots with the same rating who are aged 20–24.\n",
    "\n",
    "Handbook of Aviation Human Factors, Second Edition. John A. Wise,V. David Hopkin,Daniel J. "
   ]
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
  "kernelspec": {
   "display_name": "Python 3",
   "language": "python",
   "name": "python3"
  },
  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
   },
   "file_extension": ".py",
   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
   "version": "3.6.2"
  }
 },
 "nbformat": 4,
 "nbformat_minor": 2
}