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Adpative cycles/histories

  • empirical, general patterns
  • from collecting, sharing, analyzing stories of resilience & brittleness in action
  • cycles of [co-]adaptive reverberations across networks & scales

Precarious present

  • assess where and how system is brittle/resilient in the face of surprise
  • risk of 3 patterns of adaptive breakdown
  • project how change produces unintended consequences

Resilient future?

  • how to engineer in graceful extensibility and sustained adaptability given trade-offs and change?

florescence: the degree that changes in one area tend to recruit or open up beneficial changes in many other aspects of the network - which opens new opportunities across the network ...

law of stretched systems: with change every system is continuously stretched to operate at its new capacity

In adaptive systems, yesterday’s solutions produce today’s surprises that become tomorrow’s challenges

Tiliting toward florescence (second learning loop)

Heuristics

  1. tangible experience with surprise
  2. unease - our systems are precairous
  3. human talent - initiative: decentralized, coordinated
  4. invest resources toward resilience as graceful expensibility - not only FBC pressure
  5. build reciprocity across roles, and units, and levels.

Reading: Paul Feltovich & Rand Spiro

Woods mentions “oversimplifications”. There are several papers by Feltovitch, Spiro and Coulson, so I’m not sure which one iet’s referring to here. You make the world more linear than it really is.

Maybe this? doi.org/10.1093/jmp/14.2.109

How do you manage complexity & tilt toward forescnece as connectivity, sensing, automation capabilities grow?

positive story:

  • graecful extensibility
  • initiative / recoprociy
  • adjust capacity to adapt

negative story:

  • brittleness
  • shortfalls & mis-calibration
  • trapped in trade-offs