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About this visualisation - DFES 2024

This tool shows us how we can get to net-zero carbon by 2050. As part of our planning for decarbonisation we considered a range of possible scenarios in our region. We are publishing here our modelling results for our stakeholders to use, apply to their own models, review and comment upon. The five scenarios are:

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  1. NPg Best View – meets net zero by the late 2040s. Accelerated uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps in the early years and some use of hydrogen via hybrid heat pumps later years.
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  3. NPg Reference Scenario – meets net zero. Accelerated uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps in the early years and some use of hydrogen via hybrid heat pumps later years.
  4. System transformation – energy system is adapted for hydrogen heating and flexibility on supply side. Customers are assumed to not change their behaviour much including lower energy efficiency measures.
  5. Customer transformation – in contrast to the previous scenario, customers are keen to change their energy use behaviours and employ energy efficiency measures. Electricity is the main source of energy for heat purposes.
  6. Leading the way – gets to net zero by 2047, this is the fastest credible decarbonisation deployed on UK scale. Heating is a mixture of hydrogen and electricity with customer behaviour significantly adapted to increase system efficiency.
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    About this visualisation - DFES 2024

    Previous versions of Northern Powergrid's DFES can be found for 2020, 2021 and 2022, or choose from all our visualisations.

    If you have any comments, questions or feedback on our scenarios, please send them to System.Forecasting@Northernpowergrid.com

    Northern Powergrid DFES 2024 scenario assumptions in detail

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    NPg Best View — net zero by the late 2040s

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    This scenario world is highly ambitious, in line with our stakeholders' vision, achieving net zero in the late 2040s. The scenario relies on intensive investment in low carbon technologies, as well as early action from government and a high level of engagement from consumers, in order to achieve aggressive rollout rates, especially of EVs and heat pumps.

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    NPg Reference Scenario — meets net zero

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    This scenario world is in line with our stakeholders' vision and achieves net zero. The scenario relies on intensive investment in low carbon technologies, as well as early action from government and a high level of engagement from consumers, in order to achieve aggressive rollout rates, especially of EVs and heat pumps.

    Electricity demand
    Appliance efficiency assumptions meet current EU targets for 2030. Industrial and commercial (I&C) energy efficiency is aligned to EU energy efficiency targets.