Multiple Choice Binary Markets

[pwdel]

• Multiple choice binary markets may be a way of displaying markets rather than an actual market type.
• There could be a way to allow a user to optionally create multiple-choice binary markets, or, "group," multiple choice binary markets.
• Given that our fee system marks binary markets at price X, then hypothetically each choice added to a group could sum the total price of a multiple choice binary market up to (#Choices*X).
• Hypothetically this is a way of hashtagging markets, or micro-hashtagging, but rather than acting as a group within a search, it's a display or dashboard, such that all markets created by various users are implied to be somehow linked.

Example from Manifold. Manifold's philosophy of market creation seemed to be highly geared toward selling Mana (in-game currency). However SocialPredict could take a more neutral perspective, not incentivize any given user to string together a multiple choice binary market upon creation simply as a way of selling more points. On the other hand, we could give admins the option to activate multiple choice binary markets and incentivize this kind of broader thinking by allowing multiple choice binary markets to be discounted, up to an amount. For example, let's say that there is an arbitrary goal of grouping together 5 different multiple choice binary markets, because it might be considered cognitively difficult for individuals to consider more than 5 different potentially related markets at one time. We could allow the admin to create a game setup such that a price Y is given per market within the context of a multiple choice binary market grouping, up to a maximum of 5 options, where Y is a fraction of X. Beyond those 5 options, the market price could go back to X. The initial creator may not need be required to set up all five options, but they may be required to set up a minimum number of options such that (#Options*Y) > X, perhaps only slightly, so that there is not a way to gamify market creation and sneak in multiple choice binary questions as a way of simply creating cheaper markets.

[pwdel]

@ajlacey food for thought. @astrosnat

[pwdel]

Open discussion thread started https://github.com/orgs/openpredictionmarkets/discussions/323