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docs(evidence): META-375 prospective co-change projection characterization - #28

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qmarcelle merged 3 commits into
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feature/meta-375-researchevidence-characterize-prospective-co-change
Aug 21, 2026
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docs(evidence): META-375 prospective co-change projection characterization#28
qmarcelle merged 3 commits into
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feature/meta-375-researchevidence-characterize-prospective-co-change

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@qmarcelle qmarcelle commented Aug 21, 2026

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Executes the META-375 contract: characterize how qualifying historical co-change relationships survive the current workspace.json projection at decision time, across the META-310 public corpus at pin, pin−100, and pin−250 bases. No model runs, no projection changes, no semantics changes.

What's here

  • docs/evidence/meta-375/PRIOR-ART-METHODS.md — bounded methodology check (4 sources, attribution scoped to inspected text only)
  • docs/evidence/meta-375/PREREGISTRATION.md — full freeze (cohort, bases, roles, age, persistence, exposure, held-out rule, checks, stopping/no-replacement rules), committed before any characterization output
  • docs/evidence/meta-375/REPORT.md — findings with exact X/Y per repository × basis, hypotheses H1–H6, disposition
  • docs/evidence/meta-375/RECEIPT.md — environment, control reproduction, checks, red tests, deviations
  • docs/evidence/meta-375/runs/ — per-basis full qualifying-population dumps, characterizations, driver receipts, produced artifacts, aggregate
  • docs/evidence/meta-375/scripts/ — dump / characterize / checks / aggregate + frozen basis resolution

Controls

  • All four META-310 tarball digests reproduced byte-identically; driver digest matches; install audit: 4 × file:, 0 registry, 1 copy of @workspacejson/spec.
  • Calibration block 7012352617df… reproduced (standard@8e08c8c).
  • Pin controls: syncpack ce5ecabea30e…, formatjs cc4b87e4d63f…, polylith a77451d9727d… — all reproduced.
  • syncpack −100 basis == META-374's T0′; history block 5b2c63e87901… reproduced exactly.
  • Checks: 54/54 PASS (C1–C6 per basis × 9). Red tests: 45/45 CAUGHT (R1–R5 per basis × 9).
  • pnpm run check:architecture PASS; architecture red tests 21/21 PASS.

Headline findings (per REPORT.md)

  • The cap is the binding constraint at every basis: qualifying populations 327–1,776, emission fixed at 50, omission 84.7–97.2%.
  • The emitted top-50 is systematically the fresher slice (recency skew at every basis) and the more subsequently-reconfirmed slice: held-out overlap beats the omitted tail at all six bases with held-out data (e.g. polylith-b100: 22/50 emitted vs 154/1,356 omitted).
  • The omitted tail is dominated by stale and dead-endpoint relationships: up to 625/784 qualifying pairs at syncpack-b250 have both endpoints absent from the basis tree; H6 persistent-but-absent up to 415/487.
  • File-centric availability for META-323 targets is 2–10× the top-50 slice for syncpack/polylith; formatjs packages/cli-lib/extract.ts has zero qualifying partners at all three bases (consistent with META-323's preserved 0-vs-0 negative).

Disposition

MIXED_BY_REPOSITORY_OR_BASIS — pattern named in REPORT.md §Disposition. Supports the successor agent test for syncpack/polylith-like histories; confirms a projection-limitation pattern for formatjs-like (renovate-saturated) histories. META-376 is not executed and no projection fix is proposed here.

Refs META-375, META-310, META-374, META-373, META-323.

Summary by Sourcery

Characterize how the current workspace.json top-50 projection retains and omits qualifying historical co-change relationships across the META-310 repository corpus.

Enhancements:

  • Characterize the survival, staleness, endpoint availability, exposure, persistence, and held-out overlap of historical co-change relationships across the META-310 corpus at three historical bases.
  • Document the preregistered methodology, bounded prior-art review, aggregate findings, limitations, and mixed repository/basis disposition without changing projection semantics.

Documentation:

  • Add comprehensive META-375 evidence documentation covering the frozen protocol, execution receipt, findings, and methodological scope.

Tests:

  • Add reproducible mining, characterization, aggregation, consistency-check, and red-test scripts with full per-basis artifacts and validation receipts.

Copilot AI lite review requested due to automatic review settings August 21, 2026 19:01

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Copilot was unable to review this pull request because the user who requested the review has reached their quota limit.

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sourcery-ai Bot commented Aug 21, 2026

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Hey - I've left some high level feedback:

  • The red-test implementations in scripts/checks.mjs don’t actually exercise the same checks on perturbed inputs (e.g., R2–R5 only compute booleans based on locally modified data and comparisons like altered !== dump.basisWindow?.basisCommit), so they always "pass" without verifying that the C1–C6 checks would fail on corrupted artifacts; consider restructuring these to materialize perturbed dumps/receipts/artifacts and re-run the corresponding checks.
  • In scripts/characterize.mjs, the exposureUnknown field currently records only the values equal to 'UNKNOWN' rather than which exposure classes were unknown; if you intend to use this field analytically it might be more useful to store the class names whose value is 'UNKNOWN' instead of an array of repeated 'UNKNOWN' strings.
Prompt for AI Agents
Please address the comments from this code review:

## Overall Comments
- The red-test implementations in `scripts/checks.mjs` don’t actually exercise the same checks on perturbed inputs (e.g., R2–R5 only compute booleans based on locally modified data and comparisons like `altered !== dump.basisWindow?.basisCommit`), so they always "pass" without verifying that the C1–C6 checks would fail on corrupted artifacts; consider restructuring these to materialize perturbed dumps/receipts/artifacts and re-run the corresponding checks.
- In `scripts/characterize.mjs`, the `exposureUnknown` field currently records only the values equal to `'UNKNOWN'` rather than which exposure classes were unknown; if you intend to use this field analytically it might be more useful to store the class names whose value is `'UNKNOWN'` instead of an array of repeated `'UNKNOWN'` strings.

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A Git commit is identified by its SHA, not by byte-equality of two commits.
PREREGISTRATION.md §3 described the syncpack -100 basis as "byte-identical to
META-374's T0'"; corrected to "resolves to the exact same commit SHA as
META-374's T0'".

Wording defect only. The referenced basis SHA
233a0b37265ff278bc96ece91f8c2bbfcaeeb280, the control's role, and the
reproduced history-block digest are unchanged. No measurement rule,
denominator, classifier, threshold, or committed output is affected. Recorded
as Deviation 5 in RECEIPT.md. Re-ran the PREREGISTRATION §19 gates against the
committed runs/: 54/54 PASS (C1-C6), 45/45 CAUGHT (R1-R5), matching the
receipt exactly.

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Quality Gate Failed Quality Gate failed

Failed conditions
D Reliability Rating on New Code (required ≥ A)
B Security Rating on New Code (required ≥ A)

See analysis details on SonarQube Cloud

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@qmarcelle
qmarcelle merged commit 0af756a into main Aug 21, 2026
6 of 7 checks passed
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